{"version":"1.0.0","description":"Futures graph for agents. boatDaysImpact: -2..2. Use with watchlist + history graph.","branches":[{"id":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","slug":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","title":"Electric & Hybrid Propulsion","thesis":"Wins first on lakes/dayboats; coastal slower; infrastructure-bound.","paceYears":[5,20]},{"id":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","slug":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","title":"Autonomy & Assisted Skippering","thesis":"Copilot assists near; unsupervised autonomy far.","paceYears":[3,25]},{"id":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","slug":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","title":"Connectivity, Digital Twins & Passports","thesis":"HIN graph becomes trust and maintenance substrate.","paceYears":[3,20]},{"id":"climate-waterways-access","slug":"climate-waterways-access","title":"Climate, Waterways & Access","thesis":"Access politics and seasons rewrite QBD as much as tech.","paceYears":[1,25]},{"id":"new-materials-and-manufacturing","slug":"new-materials-and-manufacturing","title":"New Materials & Manufacturing","thesis":"Weight/QC gains; repair literacy lags.","paceYears":[2,25]},{"id":"ownership-models","slug":"ownership-models","title":"Ownership Models","thesis":"Days unbundled from driveway titles.","paceYears":[2,20]},{"id":"ai-crew-and-agents","slug":"ai-crew-and-agents","title":"AI Crew & Agents","thesis":"Co-stewards of readiness and cast-off — Boat Day lane.","paceYears":[1,15]},{"id":"regulation-and-safety-regimes","slug":"regulation-and-safety-regimes","title":"Regulation & Safety Regimes","thesis":"Software/energy/environment thicken the compliance floor.","paceYears":[1,20]},{"id":"space-adjacent-and-wildcards","slug":"space-adjacent-and-wildcards","title":"Space-Adjacent & Wildcards","thesis":"Serious low-probability high-impact watch portfolio.","paceYears":[3,30]}],"signposts":[{"id":"sp-marina-charge-std","branchId":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":2,"watchMetric":"marina_chains_with_published_charging_standard","title":"Marina charging standard published"},{"id":"sp-ev-lake-share","branchId":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"pct_new_le_25ft_lake_electric_power","title":"Electric share of new small lake power"},{"id":"sp-hybrid-cc","branchId":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","horizon":"long","likelihoodBand":"low","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"hybrid_vs_twin_ice_center_console_sales","title":"Hybrids outsell twin-ICE in a CC class"},{"id":"sp-dock-assist-take","branchId":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"high","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"oem_dock_assist_option_take_rate","title":"Dock assist option take-rate rises"},{"id":"sp-insurance-assist","branchId":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"insurers_offering_assist_training_credit","title":"Insurance credits for assist+training"},{"id":"sp-unsup-auto","branchId":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","horizon":"long","likelihoodBand":"low","boatDaysImpact":0,"watchMetric":"uscg_recreational_unsupervised_autonomy_rule","title":"Clear unsupervised recreational autonomy rule"},{"id":"sp-insurer-passport","branchId":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":2,"watchMetric":"insurers_accepting_passport_packets","title":"Insurer accepts passport packet"},{"id":"sp-marketplace-badge","branchId":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"high","boatDaysImpact":2,"watchMetric":"listings_with_history_badge_pct","title":"Marketplace documented-history badges"},{"id":"sp-liquidity-haircut","branchId":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","horizon":"long","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"price_gap_documented_vs_not","title":"Liquidity haircut for undocumented boats"},{"id":"sp-carrier-exit","branchId":"climate-waterways-access","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":-2,"watchMetric":"carrier_exits_by_state_segment","title":"Carrier exits a recreational segment"},{"id":"sp-wake-ordinance","branchId":"climate-waterways-access","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"high","boatDaysImpact":-1,"watchMetric":"counties_with_template_wake_rules","title":"Wake ordinance templates spread"},{"id":"sp-marina-retreat","branchId":"climate-waterways-access","horizon":"long","likelihoodBand":"low","boatDaysImpact":-2,"watchMetric":"major_marina_managed_retreat_projects","title":"Major marina relocates/rebuilds upland"},{"id":"sp-repair-curricula","branchId":"new-materials-and-manufacturing","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"survey_school_modules_on_new_cores","title":"Survey curricula cover new materials"},{"id":"sp-thermoplastic","branchId":"new-materials-and-manufacturing","horizon":"long","likelihoodBand":"low","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"thermoplastic_share_new_hulls","title":"Thermoplastics meaningful share"},{"id":"sp-club-util","branchId":"ownership-models","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"high","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"metro_club_utilization_rate","title":"Metro club utilization health"},{"id":"sp-marina-platform","branchId":"ownership-models","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":2,"watchMetric":"marinas_with_book_charge_service_os","title":"Marina book+charge+service OS"},{"id":"sp-agent-book","branchId":"ai-crew-and-agents","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":2,"watchMetric":"agent_booked_jobs_with_passport_writeback","title":"Agent books yard job with write-back"},{"id":"sp-agent-grounding","branchId":"ai-crew-and-agents","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"high","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"jurisdiction_qa_accuracy","title":"Agents ground state registration Q&A"},{"id":"sp-hv-survey-norm","branchId":"regulation-and-safety-regimes","horizon":"mid","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"hv_battery_survey_standards_published","title":"HV survey/salvage norms published"},{"id":"sp-leo-cruiser","branchId":"space-adjacent-and-wildcards","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"high","boatDaysImpact":1,"watchMetric":"leo_terminal_install_rate_30ft_plus","title":"LEO terminals common on 30'+"},{"id":"sp-gnss-spoof","branchId":"space-adjacent-and-wildcards","horizon":"near","likelihoodBand":"medium","boatDaysImpact":-1,"watchMetric":"documented_spoofing_us_rec_corridors","title":"GNSS spoofing in US recreational corridor"}],"scenarioNodes":[{"id":"scn-cons-2030","name":"Conservative 2030","year":2030,"pace":"conservative","summary":"ICE dominant; passports owner-driven; assists premium.","ownerMoves":["Document HIN","Train manual docking","Track insurance"]},{"id":"scn-mix-2030","name":"Mixed 2030","year":2030,"pace":"mixed","summary":"Lake EV options; passport pilots; AI briefings.","ownerMoves":["Trial club if low trips","Map charging","Enable agent nudges"]},{"id":"scn-brk-2030","name":"Breakneck 2030","year":2030,"pace":"breakneck","summary":"Policy pushes lake EV; undocumented boats suspect.","ownerMoves":["Avoid undocumented buys","Join platforms","Budget software subs"]},{"id":"scn-cons-2035","name":"Conservative 2035","year":2035,"pace":"conservative","summary":"Selective charging; hybrid coastal interest.","ownerMoves":["Add proven assists","Keep dual energy optionality"]},{"id":"scn-mix-2035","name":"Mixed 2035","year":2035,"pace":"mixed","summary":"Marketplace history badges; agent booking.","ownerMoves":["Prefer documented boats","Use steward agents"]},{"id":"scn-brk-2035","name":"Breakneck 2035","year":2035,"pace":"breakneck","summary":"Marina OS default; twin-required liquidity.","ownerMoves":["Treat boat as network node","HV literacy"]},{"id":"scn-cons-2045","name":"Conservative 2045","year":2045,"pace":"conservative","summary":"Dual-energy world persists.","ownerMoves":["Reassess EV on replacement"]},{"id":"scn-mix-2045","name":"Mixed 2045","year":2045,"pace":"mixed","summary":"Multi-waterway owners; twin resale norm.","ownerMoves":["Maintain twin hygiene"]},{"id":"scn-brk-2045","name":"Breakneck 2045","year":2045,"pace":"breakneck","summary":"Ownership optional for many urban users.","ownerMoves":["Optimize for access portfolios"]}],"dependencies":[{"from":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","to":"new-materials-and-manufacturing","type":"requires","note":"Weight & efficiency for range"},{"from":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","to":"climate-waterways-access","type":"political-license","note":"Quiet/emission benefits ease lake politics"},{"from":"electric-and-hybrid-propulsion","to":"regulation-and-safety-regimes","type":"shapes","note":"HV norms & local ICE limits"},{"from":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","to":"regulation-and-safety-regimes","type":"gated-by"},{"from":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","to":"ai-crew-and-agents","type":"converges","note":"Soft crew + hard assists"},{"from":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","to":"ai-crew-and-agents","type":"enables","note":"Agents need trustworthy state"},{"from":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","to":"ownership-models","type":"enables","note":"Shared fleets need twins"},{"from":"climate-waterways-access","to":"ownership-models","type":"accelerates","note":"Fragile docks push clubs"},{"from":"ownership-models","to":"ai-crew-and-agents","type":"needs","note":"Fair scheduling & caretaking"},{"from":"regulation-and-safety-regimes","to":"ai-crew-and-agents","type":"constrains","note":"Jurisdiction grounding required"},{"from":"space-adjacent-and-wildcards","to":"connectivity-digital-twins-passports","type":"amplifies","note":"LEO connectivity"},{"from":"space-adjacent-and-wildcards","to":"autonomy-and-assisted-skippering","type":"threatens","note":"GNSS spoofing"}],"provenance":{"source":"Boat Day","api_version":"1.8.0","as_of":"2026-10-12","method":"Curated editorial datasets in the Boat Day repo plus deterministic heuristics (valuation, TCO). No live market feed.","confidence":"Educational estimates. Records flagged demoData:true are illustrative. Not legal, tax, insurance, survey, or appraisal advice — verify with a licensed pro / official source.","honesty":"No paid placements. Outbound businesses labeled 'Find them online' are public-web listings, not partners. Founding partner roster is currently empty.","cite_as":"Boat Day (bestboatday.com) — free boating knowledge & tools for owners","terms":"https://bestboatday.com/for-agents#terms","docs":"https://bestboatday.com/llms.txt"}}